Earlier this week, he told a Seoul news website that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has had surgery on his heart suffered. CNN and Reuters took the story, sending widespread speculation. gave the krona has recovered all our attention soon, the world will ask two things remained: What is the current Kim’s health, and how much it actually costs a role? Why it matters: Let start with the fact that there is no way of knowing what the real situation with Kim’s health. South Korea play down the reports for the last days, saying that “unusual developments” has collected in the country; But Pyongyang, issue denials of messages quickly it takes to even the slightest problem was remarkably silent. In a pre-World Covid 19, Kim Jong-un has been a relatively significant world leader on the stage, in the sense that he controlled a nuclear power rogue. Well, almost scammers while North Korea can be thought of as a self-sufficient power in its own right, the toes can go walking with Western powers is the fact that the Hermit Kingdom relies heavily on China. It was only in 2017, China was responsible for 90 percent of the trade of North Korea. China has been active for decades as a kind of control over North Korea, both from a political solidarity / ideological and for fear that a regime collapse would have sent thousands of refugees streaming across the Chinese border. And with Donald Trump’s arrival on the political scene, the rule of China on North Korea was yet another lever to Beijing to use his rivalry with the United States in developing The end result was US – North Korea talks nuclear, the more Flash were like substance. That’s where we have always remained. On this front, he had incapacity or death is also a considerable effect as Kim suddenly Trump would lose its main contact. But Kim has never been serious about nuclear disarmament, as well as the administration Trump has never been seriously pushing for global action. And all that first crown hit and the US presidential elections was was in full swing, the Trump must win to bring these talks. What happens next: The real question is what a sick Kim might mean for the North Koreans. After all, the vast majority of North Koreans have only life under the rule of Kim’s father or grandfather. Kim’s regime is like rerun old footage of Kim for North Koreans, it would buy time at home, but the risk is that it requires outside observer editing walk to think about your options. But the news of a inactivated Kim is unlikely to lead to a massive political change in North Korea. Because? The curve J. A few years ago I wrote this book on how countries the opening of a company must balance the stability of the political order. The graphical representation is as follows: The countries on the left side or the shorter part of the letter “J”, are stable, because they concluded from the rest of the world and suppress their population; Countries on the right side of the curve tend to be more stable than open systems to facilitate the transition from one person to the power in the subsequent authorization without threatening the entire system. When I wrote this book, North Korea was firmly on the left side of the chart, and remains there today, the political stability of North Korea is heavily dependent remained the world closed and sealed to control the population. That isolation and repression makes things easier for the ruling elite, many of whom have their fortunes tied to Kim and the system has to implement it. Even without Kim, the system will remain in place, because people in power in the world have the incentive to maintain their privileged position in it. If Kim incapacitated-even permanently it is a massive unknown, his sister, Kim Yo-jong is to replace him as head of the country’s leaders. This is because the children are too young Kim to take his coat, and his older brother (Kim had murdered a brother in Malaysia) seems more interested in playing the guitar like a murderess regime (running so well, would not you?). And in the family, the guidance is to keep the family-particularly critical of North Korea Kim revolves around political mythology. They ‘also possible that will remain in force until one of Kim’s sons are old enough to assume the leadership of the country. But as the world has taught us recently, there is a value in the expect the unexpected. What happens when the transfer of power will not be smooth either his sister or another trusted member of the ruling clique of the country? In this case, it would mean the upheavals in North Korea, the international community have three priorities. The first will be to monitor, detect and lock to win all loose nuclear weapons, as the North Korean regime imploded; The second priority will be to be able to put the inevitable waves of refugees to come, both in South Korea and China. The third priority, and a lower order in the list, build the country back up. Global cooperation has seen better days; as a scale the country with the most investment in North Korea and should not to mention close to China to play a leading role by default. The only major mistake about it: The crown is otherwise excluded as bad news for a country like North Korea depleted … and one that China. That is, it can prove to the country’s leadership a blessing in disguise because there is no necessary political transition for the light to make them more coverage to the world’s attention as countries focus on their pandemic response him to remain. The only thing to say about it on a conference call Zoom: The only thing worse than a healthy Kim dominion over North Korea is Kim North Korea in difficulty and paranoid to govern.