The hurricane season in the Atlantic in 2018, which officially kicks is scheduled from June 1, the average is above average in intensity, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Organization forecast of annual hurricanes published Thursday. The complex model of NOAA scientists plan to be there from 10 to 16 this year storms wind speeds reach at least 39 mph to earn a climatological name. expected by the five to nine storms, mature into hurricanes, winds reached 74 hours miles, and 03:59 with at least Category 3 on the severity scale five-point “large” for top State, with winds of at least 111 hours miles. And there is no reason to believe that this is a likely possibility. TIME testing the last 15 years, NOAA forecasts found that the agency forecasts the number of significant storms, which are provided as low and high estimates are usually correct or right nearby, with some important exceptions. In May 2017, for example, NOAA predicted 11 to 17 named storms and hurricanes that 5-9 would be 2-4 major hurricanes. In our detailed analysis of the National Hurricane Center database of all Atlantic storms, there were 17 cyclones in fact has achieved the status of tropical storm, 10 of which were hurricanes and six of which were major hurricanes, including the ‘ Harvey hurricane, hurricane and hurricane Maria Irma. This brings only a small margin, the estimates, breaking a series of three years, he had been right in NOAA estimates in all three categories. The following table shows the low beam to high estimates appear forecasts for periods, the actual number of storms is. Each line of points that ends in the media estimate NOAA bar was correct. Note that the green points include all storms, while the orange dots above the lower group are hurricanes has been, and red are the subset that major hurricanes. NOAA climate scientists publish these estimates every year in May and update them later in the hurricane season. Use a cascade of data from many sources – satellite data, historical models, aircraft observations, ocean buoys and many others – to feed a growing complexity model. “We use all the information we can get,” says Dr. Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Estimates that the NOAA model is about 70 percent of the time produced exactly its developers say, and are often only one or two storms outside the projected area. In the mythical world of hard time an extra day to predict in advance, this is not a bad track record. The analysis estimates in time found that 28 of the 45 estimates, NOAA, or 62 percent, were correct, while the average error of about 3 years was high or low – a number of dramatic underestimation in 2005, the year of Katrina driven, dramatic and overrated in a relatively quiet 2006 an average hurricane season in recent years, defined as 12 named storms, including six hurricanes and three of them major hurricanes. “We have come a long way to improve confidence in these seasonal forecasts,” says Bell. But he realized that even 100% accuracy in predicting the number of storms and their wind speed would not obviate the need for protective measures in hurricane-prone areas. “We can not predict how many of these storms actually making landfall,” he warns.
Science > NOAA hurricane forecasting 2018 is here. There is good reason for confidence